The last few weeks have been fairly emotional. Walking away from a great job, spending a couple weeks relaxing on a warm beach, starting an extraordinarily challenging intensive Chinese course. Most days I have rode a giddy high. Some days I second-guessed my decisions. I know things will be a lot of fun for at least a month or two. But they then may get bad. This is the cycle of hype. Understanding this repeating cycle is instructive for managing expectations and moods.
My readers in IT know the Gartner Hype Cycle. If you are not in IT the cycle is easy to understand and broadly applicable. In fact, I have noticed the hype/excitement of many of my personal and professional ventures following the graph. I will offer examples later. But first let me explain Gartner’s graph.
In prose, here is what the graph conveys: a frenzy of interest following a hot new technology peaks once most of the market learns of it. Shortly after that many realize the invention’s limitations and become disillusioned. But over time a product or technology’s acceptance slowly grows to plateau at a level set by its true value.
This graph is not just for IT nerds. It can explain the ex-pat depression that many of my friends and colleagues recognize. While I did not become depressed after moving to Singapore, I did experience a milder version of the cycle.
It explains my history of investing in technology stocks. Yes, I once owned Pets.com.
There are a few things we can all learn from this. Most new ventures have a honeymoon period. It is crucial not to make grandiose plans or over-commit reserves during this period. Most ventures include a point of despair. It is important to realize that better times are surely ahead. Lastly, long-term success and stability is based on solid fundamentals, repeatable behavior, reasonable expectations. It can be tough to identify any of these when something is new, luscious, and intoxicating.
I believe I am today closer to the peak of inflated expectations than anywhere else on the graph. I bet if you think about any long-term project in your life you can plot yourself somewhere on this chart. I will talk to you as if I am talking to myself: Use momentum in good times to fake it ’til [you] make it. Do not be surprised when darker days appear. The emotionally taxing valley often follows the mountainous high but can be replaced by gradually improving fortunes. Make an honest assessment of the likely reality in between the peak and the trough. Then march forward.
I agree that my interest and enthusiasm rises and falls as I work on a project. I wonder if the graph of my interest has many peaks and valleys but ultimately stabilizes like your hype cycle. In either case, it takes a long term view to estimate how successful a project will be.
Mate, I loved your variant on the Gartner Hype cycle. It’s almost 5 months since I left the great VMw company and can relate to much. I believe the most important point (for me) perspective is how you finish… “Use momentum in good times to fake it ’til [you] make it. Do not be surprised when darker days appear. The emotionally taxing valley often follows the mountainous high but can be replaced by gradually improving fortunes. Make an honest assessment of the likely reality in between the peak and the trough. Then march forward.”
Thanx Scotty!
Scott – so, so true – I love this!
Nichola.